Friday, November 18, 2011

Great analysis of beta, option behavior, and implications to returns

This article has some very interesting analysis of high beta vs low beta stock performance, and how the returns relative to the overall market can be explained by asymmetric payoffs... they use option performances to show that extracting those asymmetries lets you get back to market-like returns.  I definitely need to think about this more to see whether this influences the idea of an "efficient market" - the higher return for low beta stocks is often what seems to drive value investing and the "anomalies" that this approach claims to show inefficiency in the market.  I still don't completely believe in market efficiency, but this analysis makes me think twice.

Link

Time to buy U.S. banks?

Time to buy U.S. banks?

http://rss.cnn.com/~r/fortunefinance/~3/C_DnQair1Io/

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Japan’s economy

Japan's economy

http://www.economist.com/node/21538745

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More Americans Calling it Quits: Another Sign the Job Market May be Better

More Americans Calling it Quits: Another Sign the Job Market May be Better

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/timeblogs/curious_capitalist/~3/MAjVOo1TSjg/

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Monday, November 14, 2011

Market Cap vs Fundamentals - How Weighting Affects the S&P 500

Here is a chart showing how various metrics change on the S&P 500 as you modify the weighting technique (the S&P500 nominally uses weighting by market cap of course).  Some of the weighting methods allow negative values (which matches to shorting I guess), but that's not a major effect.



Monday, November 07, 2011

Ron Baron interview with CNBC - "Stocks cheapest in my lifetime"

I haven't read or listened to Ron Baron much, but I agree with what he is saying in this interview - people are so afraid that stock multiples have dropped to such a low level...

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/151345/stock-market-cheapest-in-my-lifetime-ron-baron

Dividends vs Bond yields

A very nice article showing a group of large stable stocks whose dividend yields are higher than the corporate bonds for those same companies.  Not to mention the dividends are typically growing over time for these companies.  The companies are DuPont (DD), General Dynamics (GD), Honeywell (HON), Intel (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Kimberley Clark (KMB), Coca Cola (KO), McDonald's (MCD), Merck (MRK), and Unilever (UN)...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/305827-10-stocks-with-more-attractive-yields-than-their-equivalent-10-year-bonds?source=yahoo

Corporations rushing to issue bonds

This article discusses the rush to issue bonds by corporations to take advantage of very low rates.  UNH, which recently issued 10-year bonds at 3.4%, has a PE yield of 10% - seems like an insane spread to me...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45194318?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

Greed in times of Fear - Buffett buys $20+ billion worth in the last quarter


Warren Buffett was apparently busy buying while people worrying about various news headlines were throwing stocks overboard... see article linked below...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45193137?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Friday, November 04, 2011

Rail Traffic Remains Elevated

Another indicator that the American economy may be on the mend...

Rail Traffic Remains Elevated

http://www.valuewalk.com/economics-2/rail-traffic-remains-elevated/

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GDP and More Positive Data

An article discussing many of the positives that media its missing in all the recent doom and gloom...

GDP and More Positive Data

http://shar.es/bDsEj

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Don't Bet on the BRICs

An interesting analysis of the emerging markets...

Don't Bet on the BRICs

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/dont-bet-on-the-brics-11032011.html?campaign_id=rss_topStories

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Thursday, November 03, 2011

Richard Pzena Third Quarter Commentary: Fear and Uncertainty Create Opportu

Some interesting analysis in this excerpt... The fact that high beta stocks are relatively cheaper is interesting as is the part about return on equity staying near 12% which is what Warren Buffett wrote about in the seventies (I've linked to that article in past posts).

Richard Pzena Third Quarter Commentary: Fear and Uncertainty Create Opportu

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/150496/richard-pzena-third-quarter-commentary-fear-and-uncertainty-create-opportunity

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High yielding Dow stocks

Does anybody else think yields that are so high make any sense?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45123575?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

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Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Bonds Beat Stocks : 1981 to 2011 : The Big Picture

Another indicator that stocks are likely oversold...

Bonds Beat Stocks : 198 : 011 : The Big Picture

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/bonds-beat-stocks-1981-2011/

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